Historically, futures studies both in Sweden and at the international level date back to the mid-20th century. A number of different development paths can be identified. One is evident in strategic and military planning, where governments have developed long-range forecasts as an integrated mechanism in their strategic defence plans. Many of the terms and methodologies used in the field of futures studies originate from defence strategies. Another line of development has concerned policy strategy in a more general sense, with governments across the world setting up think tanks and forecasting units etc in order to monitor trends and carry out prospective studies. A third and growing category is studies relating to private business. An increasing number of firms and organisations have found it necessary to plan ahead and carry out long-term studies and outlooks.

The Swedish Institute for Futures Studies grew out of the second of these traditions, i.e. think tanks and forecasting units at arm’s length from central government. During the 1970s and 1980s Swedish futures studies gradually became an explicitly open and democratic tool, more so perhaps than in other countries. Publicly funded futures studies were seen as an open forum for social and political debate. To some extent, this also affected the development of methodology in the futures studies field in Sweden. Such a tradition is now an integral part of the Institute’s working practices.

Different types of futures studies

Three main categories of futures studies may be identified when browsing the literature, which is now extensive:

• Forecasts
• Scenarios
• Expert-based statements

Forecasting is perhaps the most traditional approach to the future. Typically, forecasts project an historically observed trend into a given future. Assuming certain underlying causal relationships, it is possible to forecast a phenomenon’s future development. With varying degrees of sophistication, such models may contain parameters that can be elaborated to allow for different assumptions in terms of background factors. In general, the higher degree of complexity in a system, the more difficult it is to maintain a long-term horizon in a forecast.

Scenarios are another popular technique for studying the future. Often, scenarios use more qualitative data for describing observed trends and projecting them into the future. Scenarios are frequently open-ended and therefore have the advantage of encouraging an open debate.

Expert-based advice is another popular method in the field. It comes in different forms. The best known is the Delphi study, which uses expert statements of future phenomena to arrive at a description of a plausible future.

Many futures studies use a combination of the different techniques.

Institute for Futures Studies has recently initiated a cooperation with other European institutes about long term issues from a policy relevant perspective. Jenny Andersson, part of "Futures studies on futures studies", a programme project at Institute for Futures Studies was invited to talk about futures and policy at WRR´s (Scientific Council for Government Policy) conference in August. The speech is about experiences of futures studies in Sweden in particular.

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• Speech: Futures studies for a new era. Jenny Andersson