Choosing futures
The future has always been a source of fascination. Throughout history, people have consulted everything from oracles to crystal balls and bird flight. But it was not until the 1960s that interest developed in a more systematic study of the future – inspired by major social and political upheavals and a growing awareness of the dangers of environmental degradation and over-population. In the early 1970s, separate institutes were established to pursue futures studies in many countries.

In 1971, a government inquiry was set up in Sweden to establish what form futures studies should take. It was led by cabinet minister Alva Myrdal and its final report was entitled Choosing Futures. The Government followed its recommendation and in 1973 set up the Secretariat for Futures Studies, which was originally accountable to the Prime Minister’s Office. In 1987, the Government decided to establish an independent institution for the purpose, whereupon the present foundation, the Institute for Futures Studies, came into being.

How much is enough?
The Institute for Futures Studies began its work in the autumn of 1973. Its first director was Lars Ingelstam, a mathematician and active participant in the public debate. Its activities were led by an all-party board accountable first to the Prime Minister’s Office and later to the Ministry of Education.

The Secretariat was not intended to advise the Government directly. Its studies were intended to provide a basis for policy planning and to encourage public debate on the problems and possibilities associated with choosing futures. This necessitated reliable, scientifically based analyses, provocative reasoning and the presentation of interesting future alternatives. 

The first-generation research programme focused on the problems of industrial society and the contradictions inherent in economic growth. Four problem areas were given priority: future working life, energy supply, natural resources and growth, and Sweden’s place in the world.

The Secretariat’s work reflected the hopes of the day concerning a more equitable world, and its researchers actively sought new concepts, new guidelines and new patterns of social development.

From industrial society to the ‘K’ society
In 1980, the Secretariat for Futures Studies was reconstructed as a unit within the Council for Planning and Coordination of Research. Its activities, however, remained largely unchanged. Its new director was Olof Eriksson, a professor of architecture.

Under his leadership, other problems were given prominence: the difficulties facing municipalities and sparsely populated areas, future needs in the care sector, and changing values in Swedish society. The most ambitious project, Future Popular Movements, discussed democratic organisation. A distinguishing feature of these projects was that they brought in people from outside the traditional research community.

The journal Framtider (Futures), which was launched during Olof Eriksson’s time at the helm (1982), became a means of encouraging debate on future threats and opportunities.

In 1987, the Government decided to establish an independent institute for futures studies. The directorship was taken over by Åke E Andersson, a professor of regional economics at Umeå University.

The new research plan focused on communications, knowledge, art and creativity (dubbed the ‘K’ society due to the corresponding words in Swedish – kommunikationer, knowledge, konst and kreativitet). The metropolis was presented as a symbol of future work and life.

What became known as the ‘seventies cohort project’ saw young people as the prime movers in the rejection of industrial society’s materialism and political structures. The new generation was described as being inspired by post-material values relating to internationalism and individualism.

A key figure during these years was Nils Uddenberg. He was responsible for studies focusing both on people as biological beings and on the ethical considerations prompted by new gene technology.

Shaping the future
In 1999, Lena Sommestad, an economic historian, was appointed director of the Institute. The research programme she initiated, Shaping the Future, was based on the demographic shift towards a society with an increasingly ageing population.

The question was how anticipated shifts between age groups would affect democracy and the economy. Other important areas in this programme were gender, power and citizenship of the future welfare state, and the development prospects of local communities in the face of new economic and political conditions.

A couple of dozen researchers from different disciplines were brought into the programme, representing sociology, cultural geography, economics, political science, statistics, history and economic history.

An important feature of the early years of the 21st centruy was Framtidsfokus (Focus on the Future), an ongoing series of open seminars at which the Institute’s researchers presented new findings and discussed long-term trends and topical problems. These seminars aim to attract both a broad general public and representatives of the political community, government agencies and stakeholder organisations.

Society and the Future
In 2002, Joakim Palme, a sociologist with Stockholm University’s Institute for Social Research, took over as director of the Institute for Futures Studies. Until 2005, he headed the research programme Shaping the Future and in 2005–2008 led the programme Society and the Future, which he himself designed.

The basic idea in this programme was to gain more in-depth knowledge about what is actually happening to our public institutions and to bring together the data. How do structural changes and reforms affect people’s welfare? How are resource distribution and scope for action affected? The studies were organised around five themes:
Citizenship and the Transformation of Welfare Institutions examines things like current changes in the legal basis of citizenship and European integration.
Social Exclusion Processes and Childhood Conditions: Childhood conditions have consequences far into adulthood and can therefore be viewed as a reflection of the future. The problem of social exclusion is one of the major future issues.
Regions in Transition involved in-depth studies of how Sweden’s regions and municipalities are being transformed.
Demographically Based Futures Studies: No field of study in the social sciences has been so widely applied in the analysis of future development trends as demography.
Economic Development and Intergenerational Distribution in an Ageing Society took as a starting point for its various projects the ageing population of Western society.

Greater stress was laid here on international comparisons, and there was a stronger focus on European integration and global migration issues. During the programme period, contact was established with national, Nordic, European and international networks, which proved highly rewarding. There was also a sharp increase in the amount of externally financed research.